Author Topic: The Politics Thread v3  (Read 95814 times)

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #340 on: November 07, 2016, 06:22:17 PM »
15 states within the margin-of-error, along with Maine's and Nebraska's 2nd districts.
Utah and Alaska don't have specific enough polling too.
That's >> 30% of the Electoral map, up in the air.

I don't think any of the pollsters have adjusted their techniques
to deal with how much Early Voting has taken place, and how
that skews polling responses.  I wouldn't go so far as to say
their results of this last week are inaccurate, but they are NOT
up to the quality of polls before early voting. 
See the Targetsmart post 2 back, the numbers are waayyyy different.

I'm'n'a go see the Dr Strange movie tomorrow, somehow appropriate.

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Offline bhu

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #341 on: November 07, 2016, 10:17:38 PM »
Already voted by mail.  Too many neo-nazi loons out this year to risk polls.

Looks like the election killed my gaming group too.  :bigeyes

Offline altpersona

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #342 on: November 07, 2016, 10:35:33 PM »
Im anti trump
(click to show/hide)
and anti clinton
(click to show/hide)
, but.... im less anti clinton than trump.

the good news is im in a state where my vote is not important  :lmao

all these shmuchks around me buy in to every lame slander attempt that comes up. #WhatDidHarambeKnowAboutHRC

even the ones that read actual books and study... but im getting side tracked again...

so, back to 538.. i like the tug of war map they have.

but then i read how Silver has a trump problem, he has been fucking up the trump predictions since last year.

 :banghead
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Offline Raineh Daze

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #343 on: November 07, 2016, 10:51:06 PM »
but then i read how Silver has a trump problem, he has been fucking up the trump predictions since last year.

Mind giving links? I'm no good at sourcing things.

Offline dman11235

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #344 on: November 07, 2016, 10:57:52 PM »
I recommend Adam Todd Brown for someone who predicted the Trump thing from the start ;)
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Offline altpersona

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #345 on: November 07, 2016, 11:01:07 PM »
but then i read how Silver has a trump problem, he has been fucking up the trump predictions since last year.

Mind giving links? I'm no good at sourcing things.

http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912
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Offline altpersona

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #346 on: November 07, 2016, 11:02:06 PM »
I recommend Adam Todd Brown for someone who predicted the Trump thing from the start ;)

the guy from Cracked? that is very illustrative
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Offline Raineh Daze

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #347 on: November 07, 2016, 11:31:24 PM »
but then i read how Silver has a trump problem, he has been fucking up the trump predictions since last year.

Mind giving links? I'm no good at sourcing things.

http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912

The biggest flaw with that is the admitted apology for getting pundit-y about Trump after he got the nomination based on absurdity and initial numbers. Plus its last cited article being from December... honestly, that's a pretty weak argument he's putting up. "He got it wrong about the primaries on this side, therefore his conclusions have no basis". It would seem less dismissive if 538 had not, in fact, been predicting a Trump win by one measure in July.

Also, the worst way to dismiss something that gives a probability of victory is "it got it wrong". Or looking at the editorials.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 11:33:59 PM by Raineh Daze »

Offline altpersona

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #348 on: November 07, 2016, 11:35:52 PM »
but then i read how Silver has a trump problem, he has been fucking up the trump predictions since last year.

Mind giving links? I'm no good at sourcing things.

http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912

The biggest flaw with that is the admitted apology for getting pundit-y about Trump after he got the nomination based on absurdity and initial numbers. Plus its last cited article being from December... honestly, that's a pretty weak argument he's putting up. "He got it wrong about the primaries on this side, therefore his conclusions have no basis". It would seem less dismissive if 538 had not, in fact, been predicting a Trump win by one measure in July.

Also, the worst way to dismiss something that gives a probability of victory is "it got it wrong". Or looking at the editorials.

you're such a sweet talker   :flutter

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Offline Raineh Daze

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #349 on: November 08, 2016, 12:27:26 AM »
Mind giving links? I'm no good at sourcing things.

http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912

The biggest flaw with that is the admitted apology for getting pundit-y about Trump after he got the nomination based on absurdity and initial numbers. Plus its last cited article being from December... honestly, that's a pretty weak argument he's putting up. "He got it wrong about the primaries on this side, therefore his conclusions have no basis". It would seem less dismissive if 538 had not, in fact, been predicting a Trump win by one measure in July.

Also, the worst way to dismiss something that gives a probability of victory is "it got it wrong". Or looking at the editorials.

you're such a sweet talker   :flutter

It's not my fault those are weak arguments. Only citing things from before the primaries finished is just lazy. xD

Offline Solo

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #350 on: November 08, 2016, 12:56:28 AM »
The point will become moot in 24 hours. I see no reason to lose sleep over it.
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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #351 on: November 08, 2016, 05:03:00 PM »
altP ... Libertarian an option for you?

Mind giving links? I'm no good at sourcing things.

http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912

The biggest flaw with that is the admitted apology for getting pundit-y about Trump after he got the nomination based on absurdity and initial numbers. Plus its last cited article being from December... honestly, that's a pretty weak argument he's putting up. "He got it wrong about the primaries on this side, therefore his conclusions have no basis". It would seem less dismissive if 538 had not, in fact, been predicting a Trump win by one measure in July.

Also, the worst way to dismiss something that gives a probability of victory is "it got it wrong". Or looking at the editorials.

you're such a sweet talker   :flutter

It's not my fault those are weak arguments. Only citing things from before the primaries finished is just lazy. xD


I posted this guy, just on the last thread page :  http://election.princeton.edu/
... and he's not exactly a lite weight.
There are some very-inside-baseball reasons for their disagreement.
And yeah Nate himself has gotten rather defensive on National TV about it.

Gotta dethrone the champ solidly ... but I do like the getting of more viewpoints involved.

There isn't any data available, to model the director of the FBI going all Drama Queen on the election.
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« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 05:23:02 PM by awaken_D_M_golem »
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Offline altpersona

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #352 on: November 08, 2016, 05:06:02 PM »
altP ... Libertarian an option for you?

oh god no, id vote trump before lib

i wrote in Ken Bone :D
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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #353 on: November 08, 2016, 05:17:06 PM »
Heh ... or Karl Becker the "name one positive thing that you respect in one another” guy.


Given how this election has been, I voted, but I feel like this ...


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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #354 on: November 08, 2016, 05:21:31 PM »
Already voted by mail. 

Good deal.

Quote
Too many neo-nazi loons out this year to risk polls.

My local voting spot, had the former Chief Of Police, camped out right next to the ballot collecting machine.

Quote
Looks like the election killed my gaming group too.  :bigeyes

Dang.  I asked one of my guys, to not ride his "wrong" motorcycle to work on Wednesday, just to be safe.

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Offline FireInTheSky

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #355 on: November 08, 2016, 09:29:22 PM »
Re:538 - Most of the defense boils down to the fact that Trump is an outlier, and predictive models, by their nature, never do well with those. But people want to make fun of them because their numbers didn't predict this, which is just dumb and petty since (basically) no one did.

Offline RedWarlock

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #356 on: November 08, 2016, 10:21:31 PM »
I am fucking terrified right now, as is my boyfriend. He's trying to avoid news, I'm glued to it while I cook dinner. There is no escape.
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Offline Raineh Daze

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #357 on: November 08, 2016, 11:26:59 PM »
"I'm good for business."

World markets all begin to plummet.

Everyone should have seen this coming.

Offline dman11235

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #358 on: November 09, 2016, 12:23:58 AM »
Re:538 - Most of the defense boils down to the fact that Trump is an outlier, and predictive models, by their nature, never do well with those. But people want to make fun of them because their numbers didn't predict this, which is just dumb and petty since (basically) no one did.

The irony of this is that 538 DID actually predict this, somewhat.  As the election day approached, they got guffawed at for raising Trump's chance of winning to 35%. HuffPo had theirs at 2% or something.  So 538 DID see this coming.  Their models worked.  They weren't accurate because they knew there was more uncertainty, and the uncertainty covered the spread.

Also, Bernie absolutely would have won Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  He cannot be attacked the same way Clinton can be, and his strength is Trump's strength.  He would have beaten the tar out of Trump.  Sure the margins in places like Kansas would be higher for Trump in that scenario, but it's Kansas.  He was winning that anyways.  I would bet that Sanders would have even won Florida.  Arizona.  Nevada.  New Hampshire.  Maine.  Indiana even!That's flipping two HUGE states that Trump won, and guaranteeing four huge ones that are close.
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Offline SolEiji

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Re: The Politics Thread v3
« Reply #359 on: November 09, 2016, 01:50:37 AM »
(For those in my games, sorry about the delay.  I should be posting soon.)

Welp.  Looks like this is ending.  Back to the Future Bad Future confirmed.

...and I wish I could say I was surprised.

Actually one thing that did surprise me is that everything seems to be turning red.  I figured the Senate would go blue.  Well, Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again.
Mudada.