The Politics Thread v3

[Keldar]

Trump has become the Red badge of Stupid.

[altpersona]

if nate silvers people have it right (they are pretty good), the race isnt nearly as close as it seems. seems clinton could loose california and still have the electoral college.

of course, thats just statistics ymmv

[Raineh Daze]

if nate silvers people have it right (they are pretty good), the race isnt nearly as close as it seems. seems clinton could loose california and still have the electoral college.

of course, thats just statistics ymmv

That one site is enough to point out all the flaws with giving straight poll results (though it then goes several steps further, naturally)

Anyone that assumes a trend where someone has x% more support means that they have a x% higher chance of winning needs to be introduced to the idea that polls aren't odds, ffs.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

538 is good stuff, he's been better than anyone else.
But yeah the polls aren't perfect, nor last minute voter sentiment.

Google's own voter surveys were running about +5% for Trump
for months, but their most recent poll lined up with everyone else.

538 did have to re-do some portion on Utah
with Evan McMullin getting a solid Mormon vote
and some small boost beyond that.
4 candidates getting real support, is kinda new.

Saw an Evan McMullin sign up on a neighbor's yard.
I'm no where near Utah.

[Libertad]

http://usuncut.com/politics/right-wing-pastor-better-trump-grab-psy-one/  In other news, local asshole Dave Daubenmire is at it again...

It seems that these evangelicals aren't even pretending to be Christian anymore.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

There's definitely a bit of a split going on, inside The camp, in the Evangelical + Politics people.

The South Carolina radio talk show crowd noticed it first, around that state's primary.
The Romney repubs revolted (of sorts) shortly after.
And now even some diehard women supporters, are finding the latest batch too much.
http://www.christianpost.com/news/christian-women-condemn-donald-trump-sin-misogyny-170911/
Liberty U pops up in that article too.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

Glad I missed most of the debate, normal Politifact whoppers being told.

Trump told Chris Wallace the exact opposite thing about Nukes, a few months ago. Wallace ignores the flip.

Trump pussyfooting around whether he'll accept the results of the Election.

[Raineh Daze]

I think the most amusing thing was actually Trump saying "I have more respect for women than anybody else".

[Solo]

I think the most amusing thing was actually Trump saying "I have more respect for women than anybody else".

Even women themselves.

[dman11235]

Deuterte, already racking up some impressive numbers in the "killing his own citizens" department, has now said 'screw off US, we're BFFs with China now.'

Wonderful.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

Impeach Trump, has been around for a while, but
I think it might reach critical mass in the last run up.

Bring him up on the same charges leveled against
Bill Clinton, both the zexy and the lying.  Big diff?
Trump has already publicly confessed both.
And has admitted to guiltier behavior, on tape.

'Cept for a few days of paperwork shuffling
within a few hours, there'd be a President Pence.
  

Here's a UofUtah Prof's legal brief
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2841306

[Solo]

Deuterte, already racking up some impressive numbers in the "killing his own citizens" department, has now said 'screw off US, we're BFFs with China now.'

Wonderful.

And Russia.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

It's kinda weird that Deuterte thinks the US wouldn't support him
in his tough-on-crime "W"ar.  We did that in Columbia + Mexico
and are doing it in Honduras + El Salvador.

Total waste of money, but the "people" love it.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

... but I am also tired of people pre-blaming me for President Trump.

Heh.
The US election system is screwy and deliberately opaque.
What ever Coalition (!) gets put together, happens in total vagueness.

If we had a realistic RunOff set-up, there could have been a phase of
Trump 28% , random Repub 22% , Hillary 27% , Bernie 23%

So the next round would'a been Trump v Hillary v Bernie,
and none would get to 50%, so Hill + Bern groups together.


That said, I think I'll get the chance to vote for 2 different 3rd party candidates
this go round, lower down the ticket.  Neither will win, but it's a good use of my vote.


edit :  RunOff not Re-Off

[Keldar]

Instant run-off elections would be the best.  (Well almost the best.  Banishing political parties to the cornfield would be the best.)

If we had that, we'd probably be looking at Trump vs. Sanders right now.  Weep.

[KellKheraptis]

Instant run-off elections would be the best.  (Well almost the best.  Banishing political parties to the cornfield would be the best.)

If we had that, we'd probably be looking at Trump vs. Sanders right now.  Weep.

Banishing political parties by spacing them out of an airlock in deep space and making sure they're attached to lobbyists, especially corporate and religious lobbyists, would be a good start.

[SorO_Lost]

One question, at this point have you conceded the Presidential position is just a puppet show and no matter who is in office things won't change or are you convinced the election matters but it's so rigged you will never be able to vote for the people that could actually do a good job in office?

Also someone needs to give me Superman's powers. Just saying, can we make that a thing?

[FireInTheSky]

One question, at this point have you conceded the Presidential position is just a puppet show and no matter who is in office things won't change or are you convinced the election matters but it's so rigged you will never be able to vote for the people that could actually do a good job in office?

Are those my only 2 choices? 

[awaken_D_M_golem]

The Targetsmart poll that MSNBC reported
is quite strange.  It's using possibly acceptable
methodology on it's normal polling, but buried
under all that goo, is perhaps the best Exit Poll
ever conducted ; but again, lets see the how
their methodology performs.  538 doesn't have
anything (!) about them.

It's a massive outlier too, having Hill up +17%
in what every other poll has nearly dead even.


EDIT --- and as a 100% contra ...

North Carolina, Black, early voting, is -16% from '12.
Again no idea about methodology, laws have changed,
legit semi-illegal suppression, or lower turnout.

[awaken_D_M_golem]

Went looking for dudes not so ++ about 538, and found this guy :

http://election.princeton.edu/

  or  or 

Also some very-inside-baseball critiques of 538.

Amechra can you translate some of this High Math down to hazy freshman Calculus level ??