Author Topic: Eclipse Aug 21  (Read 7151 times)

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Eclipse Aug 21
« on: July 07, 2017, 05:02:30 PM »
I wanna go so bad.
Maybe I can, maybe.

Cloud map is the most important thing, whether you could see it or not.
https://s.w-x.co/eclipse-cloud-cover-14-28aug-avg-bb.jpg

Banzai run 1000+ miles during the day before, might be 100% necessary.
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Offline sirpercival

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2017, 07:26:06 PM »
I wanna go so bad.
Maybe I can, maybe.

Cloud map is the most important thing, whether you could see it or not.
https://s.w-x.co/eclipse-cloud-cover-14-28aug-avg-bb.jpg

Banzai run 1000+ miles during the day before, might be 100% necessary.
I'll be in SC to see it :D
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Offline phaedrusxy

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2017, 08:12:20 PM »
I guess I'll be taking the fam back to my spawning grounds near Nashville to see it... Although if I hadn't already told my Mom this, I think we'd head to SC as well, since it's closer... (we're in SW Virginia).
I don't pee messages into the snow often , but when I do , it's in Cyrillic with Fake Viagra.  Stay frosty my friends.

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2017, 03:04:02 PM »
Good deal and good luck, for both of you.
Here's another cloud map that measures differently (SC is a little shaky on this one):
http://cosmicpursuits.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/weather-prospects-solar-eclipse-2017.jpg

I'm shooting for west of Bowling Green KY, give or take some cranky relatives.
The 50/50 cloud # there, is in the 20%'s.  I'm hoping to pull it off, but
I figure I can get all the way, the day before, to Wyoming or Charleston SC ... IFF necessary.
( provided other behind-the-scenes typical daily b.s. works out )
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Offline ksbsnowowl

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2017, 08:06:06 PM »
I'm in KC, and it's passing right over St. Joseph, MO (~30 miles north of me), so my wife and I are taking a vacation day to head up there and watch.

Still need to order some of those "eclipse glasses" that are sort of like the old cardboard 3D glasses, but with basically-opaque lenses that will allow you to safely watch the eclipse.

Offline phaedrusxy

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2017, 09:50:27 PM »
Good deal and good luck, for both of you.
Here's another cloud map that measures differently (SC is a little shaky on this one):
http://cosmicpursuits.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/weather-prospects-solar-eclipse-2017.jpg

I'm shooting for west of Bowling Green KY, give or take some cranky relatives.
The 50/50 cloud # there, is in the 20%'s.  I'm hoping to pull it off, but
I figure I can get all the way, the day before, to Wyoming or Charleston SC ... IFF necessary.
( provided other behind-the-scenes typical daily b.s. works out )
I'll probably be very near Bowling Green, KY myself... I'm from that area (went to WKU as an undergrad... like back in the stone ages :P). I know I said Nashville above, but figured no one knows Bowling Green. :p (And I'm not decided where exactly I'll go... have to check the weather as it gets closer...)
« Last Edit: July 09, 2017, 09:56:14 PM by phaedrusxy »
I don't pee messages into the snow often , but when I do , it's in Cyrillic with Fake Viagra.  Stay frosty my friends.

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2017, 05:53:43 PM »
Ksb niice ...  :love don't forget to tell her, you promised the moon and the stars once-upon-a-time but you threw in the sun too.
heck that's a pretty good line for anybody if I do say so

Corvettes and Hilltoppers  :thumb

I still have a pair of eclipse glasses, from the Venus Transit 5 years ago.
I got cheap Welders Goggles, with a #5 I won't use until the 5 minutes to go mark on a cheap camera.
I'm'n'a go get a #14 for me, and a #12 for camera and 1 viewing by me about 10 minutes to go.

The millennia (!) old school technique is a black bottom flat pail, filled with some water.  Safe to view unfiltered that way.
Course this is just the 3 hour lead-up and after time.  No filter necessary for the totality.
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Offline phaedrusxy

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2017, 08:51:01 PM »
I should probably go ahead and get some filters/glasses/etc myself... before they're all sold out.
I don't pee messages into the snow often , but when I do , it's in Cyrillic with Fake Viagra.  Stay frosty my friends.

Offline sirpercival

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2017, 09:37:29 PM »
I should probably go ahead and get some filters/glasses/etc myself... before they're all sold out.
Amazon has really cheap glasses.
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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2017, 05:17:07 PM »
10 pack for under $20 = niiiiice.  More adapted Solar camera lenses for $10 too.
<singsong voice for young ones :  cameras are those things that take pictures a bazillion times better than your cell phone


Weather long range forecast ---> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
They'll do an update to the 3 month forecast, on July 15 NOPE!!.  And a more specific 1 month forecast on July 20.
The jUNE 15, 3 month forecast (looks a smidge positive) saying:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2017
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
 
THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2017 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S., ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST AND FLORIDA, THE SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE
JAS 2017 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WESTERN GULF COAST,
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.


edit --- nope.  Delaying (?) to July 20 for both 3 month + 1 month.
 :???
« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 03:15:01 PM by awaken_D_M_golem »
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Offline sirpercival

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2017, 06:33:03 PM »
Hey guys check this out!

I got an email about this at work. :D
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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2017, 04:37:35 PM »
Oh yeah, gotta have Gear for this.


3 month forecast looks mostly normal to somewhat above normal temp :
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1


1 month talks about the Rio Grande Valley and N + W of there, but otherwise mostly normal, may impact Wyoming :

THE PROBABILITY ANOMALY CORRELATION (PAC) CALIBRATED PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM
THE NMME FEATURES LITTLE IF ANY SIGNAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS (36 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL
TERCILE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTH TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE MOST
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG DAILY CFS MODEL RUNS IS A FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. BASED ON
THESE TWO PRECIPITATION TOOLS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL INFLUENCES FROM AN EXPECTED
ACTIVE PERIOD OF EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY, ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, MOST OF THE MONSOON REGION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON A MONTHLY TIME SCALE.
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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2017, 03:24:21 PM »
July 29 forecast looks nearly random = backhandedly O.K.-ish

There's a big ridge of High pressure + Heat building over the west.
It'll peak around Aug 4 but dissipate after that.
Meanwhile there were No Hurricanes in the Atlantic for July.
That means lots for Aug, current average forecast is 5 !

Nifty spaghetti plot of the blue jet stream, and red tropical jet(s).
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_ussm_animation.html

Stay tuned, they'll only be at Vegas odds 14 days out, not even 5e Guidance cantrip level yet.
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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2017, 04:25:41 PM »
The link just above seems to update daily = interesting.

August forecast, small chance of above average precip in Wyoming + South Carolina.
The hot + cold chances reflect the current big ridge in the west, which will breakdown soon.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
... so still looks mostly random this far out.

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Offline altpersona

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2017, 05:49:22 PM »
lemme get this straight...

I move hundreds of miles north to PA and younz decided to have a meet up in ky?  :fu


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Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2017, 05:12:47 PM »
 :lol :-\ sry Altp ... umm ... but didn't you say it your son who didn't wanna go to Morehead?  And what 18 year old doesn't want Morehead on their resumé ?!


8 to 14 day forecast now available, with updating.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
Looks kinda slightly iffy.  Might not reach Vegas odds until 9 days out.

Chance at a tropical wave in the Bahamas on the 12th.
If it gets it's act together, it'll clear out a nice path for afterwards.
This part looks good.
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Offline kitep

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2017, 03:25:50 PM »
This link will let enter your zip code to see what time the eclipse peaks in your area

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/7/25/16019892/solar-eclipse-2017-interactive-map

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2017, 06:00:48 PM »
(click to show/hide)

**

WaPo has a forecast up ... cautioning that Confidence is Very Low, this far out.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2017/08/eclipse-forecast-08092017.png&w=1484

Oregon may have a problem with smoke from a massive forest fire in the cascades.  Poke out US 26 East, a little further.
Tropics are looking better, showing clearing along the coast.  South Carolina might be good.
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Offline phaedrusxy

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2017, 09:51:03 PM »
Man... from the looks of that, we're right in the eye of the hurricane so to speak... Hope at least the "clear skies over Nashville" part comes true...
I don't pee messages into the snow often , but when I do , it's in Cyrillic with Fake Viagra.  Stay frosty my friends.

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Eclipse Aug 21
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2017, 04:39:41 PM »
Maybe, maybe not.  Coin flip or magic 8-ball, is just as accurate 10 days out.

NOAA 6 to 10 day in is range now.  Updates daily.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

WaPo latest ~traditional forecast (as of aug 11)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/11/total-solar-eclipse-weather-forecast-as-of-aug-11/?utm_term=.6b3e657eb21e


I'm looking for a decent Cloud "forecast".  These can be very iffy.  This one is the best I've found so far, and it is Not a real forecast at all, just a current measurement but with easy to read numbers to make sense of it.
http://www.weather.gov/pqr/eclipse

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