^^
Proficiencies not working out was kind of why I said BAB, derived from Class alone as the basis for the formula. If anything it'd be the inverse, a heavy armored character is stereotyped to be less evasive, while light/unarmored to be more(which rams up against unarmored casters).
In the quick hack version, each point of class BAB grants you a corresponding point of dodge AC, replacing the item AC types besides Armor and Shield. This evens out the AC gain at low to mid level, particularly making an unoptimized fully kitted character fairly hard to hit without secondary bonuses(since your base AC would be 10+BAB+9(full plate)+2(shield) vs a to hit of 1d20+BAB +5(str at presumably 20 for a low level character) +1(Mw) which gives a required 15 to hit by another humanoid). Miscellaneous bonuses can be expected to raise these values by up to 5 for anyone who's trying at all. Enchanted armor and weapons are expected to mostly cancel each other out, though enchanted shields would tip the balance somewhat.
At higher levels, it diverges, depending on how adept you are at finding alternative AC bonus types. At low optimisation skill you have 2 types(Natural, Deflection), but this goes to more at high skill, granting you 3 more types(Sacred/Profane, insight, luck). Up until the 4th type the BAB method grants a higher AC(since they increase roughly every 4 levels), but at the 5th BAB falls behind.
Casters retain the ability to generate those AC types via buff spells, with the cleric(heavy armor, 3/4 BAB and any one buff spell makes up the missing 1/4 BAB) and druid(wild shape, taking advantage of monstrous natural armor(unless using PF wild shape) and 3/4
class BAB bonus and if they feel like it, another buff) in the most advantageous positions. Arcane casters still have to rely on the same tactics, their ACs are going to be terrible so they'd need the miss chances.
This leaves the lighter armored classes(especially the rogue/scout), who still have to deal with a relatively lower BAB without compensatory buffs or heavier armor. They would require class specific measures, as any further broad sweeps would likely pass them by.
In order to account for armor now, you could use a two axis table(this is slightly past the quick hack level now), with BAB and armor worn determining gains from each class level. You don't get any bonus if wearing armor you aren't proficient with. Maybe something like this(fractions are per class level):
| None | Light | Medium | Heavy |
Full BAB | +1/2 | +1/3 | +1/4 | +0 |
3/4 BAB | +1/3 | +1/4 | +1/5 | +0 |
1/2 BAB | +1/4 | +1/5 | +1/6 | +0 |
So if you were a Fighter 6, you'd have a +3 AC bonus while unarmored, +2 in light, and +1 in medium.
Monster ACs are already adjusted for their CRs by their natural AC modifiers for the most part. NPC ACs go up, but they were pretty abysmal before due to reduced gear(and you can't increase it without turning them into extreme loot pinatas).
Just a thought.
EDIT: That took longer than I thought, maybe I should clean it up and post a thread in Houserules for that.