Author Topic: Vote(d) 2012 ... can't mediate the Ho Ho's  (Read 128560 times)

Offline Libertad

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #620 on: November 07, 2012, 09:43:33 PM »
And then there's Nate Silver and his exact prediction of the states.

And the Republicans were shitting on him for his "scam predictions and pseudo-science" because he predicted Romney would lose.

Reality has a well-known liberal bias.

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« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 09:45:22 PM by Libertad »

Offline Tshern

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #621 on: November 07, 2012, 09:47:29 PM »
A first past the post system tends to having two parties.  That's the way of things.  The wiki article on it isn't bad:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting

Assuming there is an actual contest, a voter has every incentive to vote for one of the major parties. 

So, this: 
If you vote for either of the two big ones, it's your fault you get stuck with their shit. It's that simple.
is ridiculous and needlessly inflammatory.  It's like blaming US voters for using dollar bills. 

That being said, due to the way politics and voting works in America, as opposed to say Britain, elected officials tend to cultivate personal constituencies.  And, b/c there is an overwhelming incentive as a politician to join one of the two major parties, the parties tend to be very big tents (although the Republican Party may have proven too small of one in certain key ways).  Which is to say, a Republican (or Democrat) in one state may, and often do, vary quite a bit from a Republican (Democrat) in a different state or even a different district.
As opposed to the UK? The UK uses first-past-the-post system for national elections. I still blame them for it. Electoral systems can be changed, and I think the FPTP system ought to be eradicated, because it pretty much inevitably results in way too much convergence and favours two party systems. One option is to simply start supporting and helping smaller parties to get visibility.
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Offline SolEiji

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #622 on: November 07, 2012, 09:53:55 PM »
Out of curiosity, has anyone from the American stock of our users thought about voting for someone outside the big two? Or perhaps even done so?
I voted for Gary Johnson in a bid for 5%.  Sadly it looks like we only got 1%, but in 3rd party terms that is still a lot.  Over the next 4 years I hope to fight off the mentally of having to pick the winner, or voting against the person you hate.  If it weren't for those two thought processes you'd see a crapload more 3rd party votes.

And ultimately, the death of First Past the Post.  It's not like either D or R will attempt that ever, it's bad for them!
« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 09:57:13 PM by SolEiji »
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Offline Nanshork

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #623 on: November 07, 2012, 10:08:27 PM »
Now that the election is over I feel safe to post in this thread. 

@Tshern: I'm a Libertarian and have voted for my party's candidate the past three elections.  So yeah, some of us do it.

@SolEiji: Not only is 1% a lot, it's an actual record.  I'm quite happy with that even if we didn't get the 5% I yearn for.

Offline Unbeliever

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #624 on: November 07, 2012, 11:31:36 PM »
@Tshern
Advocating for change is one thing.  Scolding people for doing the best option available to them under the regime they live in is another.  Although I'd question your claim to either.  Multiple parties \= better parties or better politics, viz. about 80% of the elections in the world.  It's a simplistic view of the world.  Proportional representation does not mystically solve political ills.  Just ask Italy. 

And, yes, there are important distinctions between the UK and the US system.  Most notably that UK seats are tied to party and not to individuals.  The UK system undermines the ability to create a personal constituency.  There are lots of other little bits to the system that change the relationships between parties and voters.  The parliamentary system, and the way members of the House of Commons are not tied to a particular district in the same way -- the party will move them around, putting weak candidates in more secure districts and stronger ones in weaker ones. 

Personal constituencies are much stronger in the US.  This has a few effects, notably stronger incumbency advantages and squishier parties. 

That being said, what's the point of the UK example?  They have, essentially, a 2-party system.  The current unstable coalition is about as common as a Perot-style candidate in the US. 
« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 11:59:50 PM by Unbeliever »

Offline Tshern

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #625 on: November 08, 2012, 10:20:51 AM »
@Tshern
Advocating for change is one thing.  Scolding people for doing the best option available to them under the regime they live in is another.  Although I'd question your claim to either.
I just don't consider voting for either of the big parties to be the best option available. If someone opines that either of the two is the party closest to their political stance, then they should go for it. Otherwise I don't really see the point.

Quote
Multiple parties \= better parties or better politics, viz. about 80% of the elections in the world.  It's a simplistic view of the world.  Proportional representation does not mystically solve political ills.  Just ask Italy.
Italy's strange party block system is a weird one, that I must admit. Multiple parties make it more likely for one to find a party that's closer to his political stance though.

Quote
And, yes, there are important distinctions between the UK and the US system.  Most notably that UK seats are tied to party and not to individuals.  The UK system undermines the ability to create a personal constituency.
But you do vote for an individual in any given constituency and each constituency gives a single MP. How is that tied to a party?

Quote
Personal constituencies are much stronger in the US.  This has a few effects, notably stronger incumbency advantages and squishier parties.
 
This is very true. The incumbency rate is pretty astonishing.

Quote
That being said, what's the point of the UK example?  They have, essentially, a 2-party system.  The current unstable coalition is about as common as a Perot-style candidate in the US.
The point was that the UK uses the same electoral method and I find it stupid. So much like in the US, I think the UK should have a voting reform. Labour already offered to do it, if Lib Dems formed a government with them, but...
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Offline Kajhera

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #626 on: November 08, 2012, 10:30:45 AM »
@Tshern
Advocating for change is one thing.  Scolding people for doing the best option available to them under the regime they live in is another.  Although I'd question your claim to either.
I just don't consider voting for either of the big parties to be the best option available. If someone opines that either of the two is the party closest to their political stance, then they should go for it. Otherwise I don't really see the point.

Let's put it this way, I have about a 90% agreement with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate and an 85% agreement with our good President, as well as agreeing with many of the things he's made happen in the past four years (and disagreeing with 10-15% ... how appropriate). Also he's at least shown he's up to the job (incumbent's advantage). Further, I know I'm a great deal more liberal-socialist than pretty much most of the other people in my country, and someone who led like I want them to would tick people the heck off, and legitimately, too, rather than due to smear campaigns and misinformation. Commander-in-chief is not the ideal location to tick people off, given most of what I actually want is laws to happen.

Given this, and given Michigan was a blue-leaning swing state so votes mattered at least some, I think you can see my reasoning in voting for someone who was not the absolute closest to my political views. If we had a better multiparty system I would be happy to vote em into the legislatures though, and I did cast some votes that way.

Offline Kajhera

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #627 on: November 08, 2012, 10:42:17 AM »
@Tshern
Advocating for change is one thing.  Scolding people for doing the best option available to them under the regime they live in is another.  Although I'd question your claim to either.
I just don't consider voting for either of the big parties to be the best option available. If someone opines that either of the two is the party closest to their political stance, then they should go for it. Otherwise I don't really see the point.

Let's put it this way, I have about a 90% agreement with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate and an 85% agreement with our good President, as well as agreeing with many of the things he's made happen in the past four years (and disagreeing with 10-15% ... how appropriate). Also he's at least shown he's up to the job (incumbent's advantage). Further, I know I'm a great deal more liberal-socialist than pretty much most of the other people in my country, and someone who led like I want them to would tick people the heck off, and legitimately, too, rather than due to smear campaigns and misinformation. Commander-in-chief is not the ideal location to tick people off, given most of what I actually want is laws to happen.

Given this, and given Michigan was a blue-leaning swing state so votes mattered at least some, I think you can see my reasoning in voting for someone who was not the absolute closest to my political views. If we had a better multiparty system I would be happy to vote em into the legislatures though, and I did cast some votes that way.
Though I guess the 10% I oppose the green party on is pretty freaking important. I really hate a lot of things Greenpeace has done and they kinda have some teeth in the policies. (In general the Green Party is much nicer though.) I mean, when I like everything else but wonder if the Green party's environmentalism is up to my standards scientifically speaking, (also anthropologically but I haven't found anything against that quite yet, it's just a small worry) it kind of calls the whole thing into question.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 10:46:37 AM by Kajhera »

Offline Unbeliever

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #628 on: November 08, 2012, 11:13:08 AM »
Italy's strange party block system is a weird one, that I must admit. Multiple parties make it more likely for one to find a party that's closer to his political stance though.
Totally, which is a strong vote in their favor.  Although in principle it's not too difficult to replicate something similar with only 2 parties, it just makes the primary much more important.  That's how it is here in NYC -- it's a single party city, so the Dem Primary is where the real action is.  And, there is wide variance in the local Democrats on many issues. 

In practice, though, party discipline creates pressures for more homogeneity.  If you don't "go along" with the other Democrats (Republicans) then they won't go along with you and you can't get anything done.  But, the same sort of thing happens in multi-party systems, it's just that you end up creating a cross-party coalition rather than an intra-party one.  But, the pressures are bound to be different, e.g., the US committee system. 

Also, note that most of the multi-party systems are parliamentary ones, which brings a whole other set of things.  The parties are much, much more important there b/c they form the basis of voting blocs that have relatively untrammeled political power.  Divided government, in the American sense, doesn't happen. 

But you do vote for an individual in any given constituency and each constituency gives a single MP. How is that tied to a party?
If I'm recalling correctly -- and I'm not an expert about UK politics, so most of this is by osmosis -- the parties in the UK are much freer about shuffling their members around.  So, for example, Labour will put one of their celebrity MPs in a weak Labour district during one set of elections b/c that will help them win the district, while putting a weaker MP (e.g., one who has recently had a scandal) in a much safer district. 

It's hard to imagine that sort of thing happening in the US.  Kirsten Gillibrand has developed a New York constituency and a reputation on a series of issues important to New Yorkers.  Not only would she most likely have to move if she wanted to run for a Senate seat from Arkansas (residency requirements for such positions are determined state by state), but her legislative and political record would often be at odds with the local constituency. 

A lot of those differences may be overdetermined, though.  The UK is a much smaller and more homogeneous country than the US, and it lacks our (admittedly somewhat bizarre) federal system.  So, those kind of distinctions might be products of those differences rather than MP shuffling.  Or, they even could be the cause behind MP shuffling.  Likewise, despite being FPP, UK has a parliamentary system. 

My only real point of the above rambling, to the extent I even have one, is that proportional representation (which is what you're really suggesting) isn't a silver bullet.  It has its own pathologies, and we have to weigh its against FPP's.  Although I think it probably has more merit than FPP as a system, I'd expect that even if there were PR you'd probably only see a handful of parties that are real contenders.  So, query whether you'd really have candidates that mirrored your ideology/political views.

And, actually, my real point was just the one Kajhera made better than I did:  you want to have the most impact with your vote you can have.  Voting "sincerely," the technical term for what Tshern is advocating, rather than "strategically" is often not in your (or, debatably, the nation's) best interests.  And, as I indicated above, even in a PR system you're almost assured to have to do it, too. 

Unless you, personally want to run for office that is ...

Offline awaken_D_M_golem

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #629 on: November 08, 2012, 04:34:09 PM »
And then there's Nate Silver and his exact prediction of the states.

Nate Silver is The Man.



Tshern -- there were 3rd/4th parties for Pres at
various points 100+ years ago.  For instance: 
Presidents Jackson, Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt.

3rd Candidates have recently won Governor and
Senator elections.  Repubs "kicked" out of the
party have run as Independents and won, in
Rhode Island (i don't know if this counts) and
Maine.  Dems have lost in the primary but won
the in general, like Joe Lieberman, in Connecticut.
There is room in the middle for solid candidates.


« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 04:36:20 PM by awaken_D_M_golem »
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Offline bhu

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #630 on: November 08, 2012, 05:03:11 PM »
There's also a problem of getting on the ballot.  Most third party candidates don't have the ability to get the requirements to be on the ballot in every state, effectively making them regional candidates, meaning voting for them is pointless as they will get neither enough electoral or popular votes to win, even if all they hope for comes true and they stomp the major party candidates in that area.

Offline veekie

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #631 on: November 08, 2012, 05:18:40 PM »
The core problem of a two party system(even in contrast to effectively two party coalitions), is it's tendency towards extremism and polarising politics. Instead of working together to reach the balance of policies the country needs, they pursue their policies and stonewalls the other party where possible. This also makes moving away from the system unlikely, any newcomer would be crushed between the extant duo's reach.

Multi-party systems, especially where they need to make alliances to obtain a ruling coalition(rather than winning on size alone), must make compromises, and thus aims towards centrism in policy even as individual parties get crazier and appeal to smaller niches. They cannot focus purely on one section of the electorate because it's not enough.
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Offline Unbeliever

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #632 on: November 08, 2012, 06:08:27 PM »
^ a lot of this is intuitive, but also unsupported by either theory or evidence. 

Regardless of the behavior of the major parties, third parties are unlikely to arise in a FPP system.  Referring to it as Duverger's Law overstates the situation, but the tendency is true:  there is little incentive for third parties to develop b/c they will not be able to occupy an ideological space to capture the required 50%+1 of the electorate.  They would have incentive to join up with the major party they most closely align with since anything short of the magic 50%+1 mark is operationally equivalent to 0.  You can see this in the US -- the Working Families Party is aligned with the Democrats for national candidates. 

To repeat, if, in the US, Democrats and Republicans were perfect angels and even fostered third parties, they would still have a tendency (note, not an iron law) to not exist.  The FPP system tends towards two parties.  Now, it might be the case that Dems and Reps crush third parties, as well, I'm just saying you couldn't point to that to the cause of there only being 2 (major) parties in the US. 

Secondly, multiparty systems are rife with extreme parties.  E.g., 21 (out of 300) seats in the Greek Parliament belong to the Golden Dawn, who are neo-Nazis who advocate for immigrant work camps. 

Indeed, I think political science is pretty clear that you get less extreme parties in a two party system. 

The logic is intuitive:  you need to appeal to a fairly broad swath of the population to reach the 50%+1 mark.  In a multiparty proportional system, even if you get 10% of the vote that still often translates into seats, which can often translate into real bargaining power.  In an FPP system, having 10% of the votes means absolutely nothing. 

And, there's no evidence to support that multiparty coalitions tend towards more moderate policies either.  Once they get a majority or majority coalition, they can and do screw everyone else and pursue their agenda.  Indeed, the US is one of the few countries that allows for divided government, not to mention all the mechanisms in the system that kill political action (e.g., filibuster, vetoes, judicial review), all of which makes the US system less likely to enact extreme policies just b/c it's hard to enact anything.  That comes at its own cost -- gridlock -- but it's the constitutional design. 

Indeed, one might characterize the shift in policies that we have seen in Europe (including Britain) in the past 5 years as considerably more extreme than the one in the US, talking heads notwithstanding. 

The problems of intense partisan polarization in the US very unlikely to be a product of the two-party system or the voting rules.  If it were the case, then you wouldn't see any time trend -- the country has always had two parties.

Offline InnaBinder

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #633 on: November 08, 2012, 07:54:40 PM »
There's also a problem of getting on the ballot.  Most third party candidates don't have the ability to get the requirements to be on the ballot in every state, effectively making them regional candidates, meaning voting for them is pointless as they will get neither enough electoral or popular votes to win, even if all they hope for comes true and they stomp the major party candidates in that area.
I know, for example, that the Green Party candidate that I tested as being "closest to, ideologically" wasn't on the ballot in my area.
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Offline Nanshork

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #634 on: November 08, 2012, 08:00:27 PM »
Voting for a third party presidential candidate is NOT about having them win.  If any third party candidate receives 5% of the popular vote then they become an officially recognized party by the Federal Elections Commission.  That means A) They receive federal grants and B) They get guaranteed ballot access.

THEN we can stomp the other two parties.

Offline skydragonknight

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #635 on: November 08, 2012, 08:55:29 PM »
Reality has a well-known liberal bias.

I would actually say reality is centrist. Only America leans so far to the right that true centrist policies fall under our left.

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Who knew that the Party of Lincoln would become the Party of States' Rights?  Good ol' Abe must be rolling in his grave.

Republicans used to be the party of business and government (the North), And Democrats used to be the party of the 'common man' (workers, especially Southern farmers who owned slaves) and were anti-government. It wasn't until the Civil Rights movement that ideologies reorganized themselves within the parties.

Hmm.

Offline phaedrusxy

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #636 on: November 08, 2012, 09:22:21 PM »
Republicans used to be the party of business and government (the North), And Democrats used to be the party of the 'common man' (workers, especially Southern farmers who owned slaves) and were anti-government. It wasn't until the Civil Rights movement that ideologies reorganized themselves within the parties.
Yes, my grandfather, and many like him in the area of Tennessee I grew up in, were "blue collar" democrats. He was a school bus driver and farmer. Now the entire state is so red as to make it a waste of time to vote democratic there (I haven't lived there for nearly 20 years).

It's really interesting how the Republicans have basically hamstrung themselves with the baggage of all these social issues which are now turning around to drag them down due to the changing demographics of the country. I think the party is either going to implode and die, or reinvent themselves to be more like the Libertarians. Either would be a huge improvement over what they are right now... All the theocratic, racist, misogynistic bullshit some of them spout is just disgusting, and even if it doesn't represent the "real" republican party, it certainly represents a decent chunk of their "base".
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Offline Libertad

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #637 on: November 08, 2012, 09:30:47 PM »
@ Phaedrusxy:

The Libertarians can gain a lot of traction if the GOP collapses in an internal civil war, only problem is the Libertarians are so small government that lots of Americans will not support them.  End federal subsidies for farmers?  Lose the farmer vote.  Cut military spending?  Americans will claim that they're sacrificing safety and security.  Say Social Security's a Ponzi scheme?  Well, don't count on senior citizens or middle-aged people voting for you.

The Green Party is too single issue (environmentalism) to gain a lot of traction.

I think the US could do a lot of good with the 3rd parties, only problem is that their policies don't have mass appeal.

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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #638 on: November 08, 2012, 10:51:19 PM »
i generally would like to think 'the fix' is eliminating primaries.

but, i think when that happens that the various incumbents will have an unfair advantage over the divers parties. having 9 of one thing on the ballot vs. 1 of the other pretty much means the 1 is gonna stay put. you would have to prevent setting office holders from running.
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Re: Vote 2012 ... (whiteknuckling the last few days)
« Reply #639 on: November 09, 2012, 07:58:36 AM »
The Libertarians can gain a lot of traction if the GOP collapses in an internal civil war, only problem is the Libertarians are so small government that lots of Americans will not support them.  End federal subsidies for farmers?  Lose the farmer vote.  Cut military spending?  Americans will claim that they're sacrificing safety and security.  Say Social Security's a Ponzi scheme?  Well, don't count on senior citizens or middle-aged people voting for you.
...
I think the US could do a lot of good with the 3rd parties, only problem is that their policies don't have mass appeal.

This.  Some of this can be fixed with branding.  Dunno about the farmer bit, but the military spending can be said as "moving offense to defense" since it's cheaper to have troops here instead of running bases overseas.  On social security, they can take a non-hardline approach and scale back.  Most youth I know, myself included, don't even expect SS so admitting that it's a lost cause and saying the cutoff date is HERE is fine for me, and doesn't upset the elders.

Now the trick is, will they get the reasonable ones out there to take advantage, or will they find the more extreme ancap "voting just empowers the state" type?
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